The Exports of the mexican automotive industry: an analysis through an ARMA model

Abstract

Mexico is one of the main exporters of the automotive industry globally, derived from the high production of the country's manufacturing centers. It is divided into two branches, vehicle manufacturing and the auto parts market. Since the mid-1990s, this industry has established itself as one of the most important generators of income, employment and economic well-being, to a greater extent due to its performance in the export sector; However, the effect of the Covid-19 health crisis generated imbalances and a drop in production and exports. The objective of this research is to analyze the exports of the automotive industry through an ARMA econometric model, with the purpose of predicting the behavior of said exports in the post- Covid-19 period. The results show a prompt recovery and the strength of a strategic sector in the value chains of the national economy.